My final blog entry

We have been back in Singapore for about two months now. For a while I have been thinking about writing my final blog entry. Ann Hussien song (see below) gave me the opportunity.

In the things that are transient and do not matter, Dubai is like Singapore and even surpasses her in some ways. In the things that do matter, Dubai has a lot to catch up with Singapore. Unfortunately after reading the latest survey of the Middle East in the Economist, I am not optimistic. For their sakes, I don't mind being wrong. Forecasting has always been a hazardous art.

Singapore is a paradoxical place, almost completely man-made to be politically correct, but I believe exists and thrives by God's grace. Most of us are very good second class citizens. Quite a few of us tend to forget that if we were to be first class without the foreign talent (many not good anyway but a huge net positive overall) we would be very poor first class indeed. I saw this at first hand in the Emirati-first policies in Dubai. I am afraid they would be sunk for it. If you disagree with me, I recommend Alan Beattie new book, "False Economy: A Surprising Economic History of the World"

Police Cars

Below is a video I shot in March but decided against blogging it here for obvious reason.

I was tailing a police patrol car for several minutes. At the red light, I decided to prepare my camera and took this video. The whole time the police vehicle had its hazard lights on for no good reason.

This is only I have got on video. On several occasions I have witnessed how reckless the police vehicles in Dubai were. Also once they stopped my Learner's car and asked my driving instructor for directions! I suppose it is not unusual if you call the police in an emergency and they could not find you.

DEWA is deaf and blind

I just got another bill from DEWA to pay the utilities and municipality tax. I have informed them several times already to start the last bill process but they never did. Anecdoctal evidence suggest that you must make a trip personally to their offices to terminate the services. The online service to do this is a sham. I wouldn't do that as that could mean they could cut off my electricity and water before I vacate my premises.

I just shot them another email to do the necessary conveniently ignoring the fact that they are deaf and blind.

The positives and negatives in Dubai are quite extreme.

A beautiful sunrise

Just took this picture with my trusty Casio pocket digital camera less than half and hour ago. Welcome to another day of very hot and humid weather and lots of unpacking. I hope we can finish the job today. The children is getting a first hand lesson on shopping - Don't. One of them kept repeating, "please don't buy any more..." Well, this unpopular attitude they say would be bad for the economy, but I suspect we will think up many better things to do. The problem is too few people want to explore this.

One round trip - Container arrives

I had pictures of the boxes being loaded up to the truck last year. Now this a a photo of our boxes from Dubai being unloaded yesterday. It has been very fast. We arrived in Singapore on the 27th of May and our stuff are already here by sea on the 9th of June. The air freight portion was expected sooner but for some reasons I cannot fathom, it didn't fly out until the 5th. So by air and sea, they came at the same time.

What Recession?

The photo above was taken from the East Coast Park this morning. The Singapore port appeared very crowded. What recession? The numbers in the papers had been going down for many months now but the sight on our waters is so different from the recession of '85, where there were very few ships.

The trade numbers are not wrong. The major difference is the size of the Singapore economy. It is much larger than it was almost 25 years ago. Despite this, the parking space at sea hasn't changed much. This is the same with the people thronging the malls and various eateries. Singapore is at a different level now. Trade to GDP ratio may be in excess of three times. Our dependence on the external world has increased but counter-intuitively, we have become more able at absorbing external shocks.

So what recession? This is actually the deepest recession for us since becoming independent. It is just less obvious on the street now. Remember, we all laugh together but cry alone. The affected residents are staying away.

Durian dinner

Daisy and I decided that we will do something exceptional for dinner on friday - We would eat only durians. We bought two the first and smaller one was much better than the bigger second one. You can find durians at Carrefour in Dubai, but they look like they were fallen from the tree last year. Who will eat them? They should be offered to the decomposers, i.e., the bacteria and fungi.

National Geographic Shop

We were in Vivocity on Friday to restart our cable TV connection when saw the National Geographic shop. It was a real treat to the eyes except for the price tags. I especially love the bags, and I always thought this sort of thing is a woman's obssession. Daisy is always eyeing bags and she thinks I am quite good at picking out the nice ones.

If you were wondering if we bought anything? Non. Money sits in my pocket better than elsewhere most of the time.

I will window shop there again and again and buy nothing unless there is a big sale. I will never be tempted, and has had more than 20 years of training already.

Very hot in Singapore

This is the wall clock in our living room. The only interesting data was 30.3 degrees celsius. No wonder so many people have been complaining to me via email when I was in Dubai that it is unbearably hot here. More than once, my sister said she was melting.

I remembered the e-mercury rarely exceeded 29. It has been consistently above 30 since we got back.

In our Dubai apartment where we have 24/7 air conditioning, we usually set the thermostat to a pleasant 24. My desk top clock thermometer would typically read 27. Now above 30 and with almost perfect humidity it is very difficult not to turn on the a/c.

Return to a dearly missed place

"Verging all Teens" occupies the top floor of the Jurong Regional Library. One day after we landed in Singapore, we too the girls to the library, one of their favourite places. We had in Dubai unsuccessfully tried to find any facility that would fill this void.

This photo was taken on a comfy bench as I sat there waiting for the rest of the family to get their books. On my lap is my reserved copy of, "Prisoner of the State" translated from the audio tapes dictated by the later Chinese premier Zhao Ziyang.

Two cities skyline

The last time we approached Dubai International Airport, Lin took a photo shot of the Dubai skyline, I told myself I must also take a shot of the approach when we go back to Singapore. I had hoped to get a photo of the Singapore CBD but discovered that we were on the wrong side of the aircraft. I have here is the picture of Pasir Ris HDB estate in the distance and Changi Village near us.

My point? We are so blessed to be in the tropics where nature is on our side if we want to green the city. Dubai is less fortunate. Theirs is an endless battle with the sand, pitting technology and money against nature. Even Abu Dhabi cannot do much better.

On the way home

30,000 feet above the Indian Ocean in the morning of the 27th and waiting for my bread roll to arrive. All of us have slept most of the journey home, i.e., skipped a "Gordon Ramsey" supper. This is our last trip from Dubai to Singapore. No plans to go back unless it is a different Dubai. Also no plans to fly business class unless forced to do so. We rather fly coach and pocket the difference. Due to the hard times, the Raffles Class ticket to Singapore was absurdly cheap anyway. Yes, we are grateful that for once, we did need to board the bus to our plane. We had the aero bridge this time!

We arrived in Singapore's Changi airport at 11:20am. The midnight temperature in Dubai was 37C compared to 29C at Changi.

Last sunset in Dubai

We have just returned our rental Accord, the equipment from Du and also had a quick dinner. While riding in a cab back to our apartment I took this picture of our last sunset in Dubai. We have booked a cab to the airport for 8pm; more than enough time to shower before we leave.

Dubai is facing a very serious debt crisis which I am convinced from talking to some senior executives here is understated. US$80 billions owing over five years of which about US$ 13 to 17 millions are due this year, the numbers are far too small. One developer I know already owes at least a few billions and there are so many of them!

Dubai cannot be sunk so easily. No country can and furthermore it is located strategically in the most important oil producing area in the world. Dubai will rise again, I explained to people countless times but many of the expats will not be here to ride the next wave.

We are among the few fortunate ones with a choice to remain or leave with benefits. We have chosen to leave for the sake of the children's education.

Our favorite Thai stall

This was our favorite Thai food outlet in Dubai and the MOE. We were hoping to savor it one more time before we return to Singapore. No such fortune, they are closed and undergoing renovation. Seems to me that the stalls here are taking turns to do this. Unlike back home, they take their time to come back.

Visiting Babu @ Burj Dubai

Yesterday I tried to visit Babu after leaving a remote control for a friend I had forgotten earlier. Babu I was told from numerous emails sent to me works on a crane at the very top the world - The Burj Dubai.

I didn't manage to get up there and I think you can guess why. I was told it was dangerous to approach the top too even on no lightning days. Rumors had it that toilets are not provided at the top.

By the way, Babu doesn't exist, at least not in the cabin up there. One day, when the building of the Burj Dubai becomes a documentary on National Geographic or Discovery Channel, we will get to know who this "Babu" was. Till then, keep your fingers crossed. Let a hundred rumors abound. No worries, the truth up there will be revealed.

The Dubai Mall Fountain

Had a wonderful chicken curry dinner a the place a fellow singaporean family last night. Their condo faces the Dubai Mall fountain and here is what we enjoyed after the makan!

Pride of a once Great Developer

Drove by this place in Jebel Ali yesterday afternoon and was surprised to see perhaps a kilometre of once proud flags of a key developer in Dubai torned. Some of the flag poles have even collapsed on the ground. They should never have allowed this to happen. Much better if they had removed them.

Future Blog entry - The Dubai Mall Fountain

This is an unusual blog entry because I am going to describe something that has not happened for us yet. We have been invited to an apartment with a frontal view of the new Dubai Mall fountain. We are likely to see more than what I am sharing with you here, which is taken off the Internet.

Here is probably the most popular video of the "musical fountain" which clearly outsize and outperform Singapore Sentosa island.

More abandoned cars

The last time there were five abandoned cars downstairs of Shatta Tower. They have all been removed. Two to three weeks ago I began noticing this two rental civics from Thrifty parked at the same place. I might have developed the "Blink" ability for such things. Yesterday, these two cars were caked with dirt and dust. I believed they have been abandoned by their hirers. Thrifty must be missing them.

A great mini-notebook deal

First saw this being offered for 1099 AED or about SGD 440 on friday. Daisy was tempted but we thought probably as good an offer is also available back home.

Saw a more modest version of this machine in ST on saturday morning going at SGD 599 and only with a 16GB SSD (the one above is equipped with a 120GB hard disc).

We decided to pick up one on saturday. While in the queue to pay, there were a few others like minded purchases. One of them tried to jump queue a lady and I had to shoo him off. Yes, people here are less shameless about such behavior.

More Liberalisation

"The government is currently working on a number of laws and regulations that will reduce procedures and lower licensing and business registration costs and make Dubai a more competitive place to work and live in,"

Hamad Bu Amim, Director-General of Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told Gulf News in an exclusive interview.

Once liberalise you cannot look back. Often you have to liberalise even more aggressively when the economy hits a speed bump, which is what has happened to Dubai. This place doesn't have a choice. That is why those who are patient and careful will reap the benefits.

This how Dubai works. It is like the tides. The expats come and go in waves. At the moment we are experiencing the tide going out. But with each cycle, the emirate must learn to build something that can be built upon in every cycle. This round they have over done it but they should be able to recover. The ones who take the pain are the labourers and expats. The locals as consumers do not matter but the quality of leadership is crucial.

The Global Wealthy

Where do the rich like to live? Here is how they polled as reported by Bloomberg.

The following table is a ranking of the world’s top centers for “mobile wealthy residency,” compiled by Scorpio Partnership.

1. Switzerland
2. London
3. Singapore
4. New York
5. Hong Kong
6. Jersey
7. Cayman
8. Isle of Man
9. Monaco
10. Dubai
11. Guernsey

And here is a report on the same news by Emirates Business 24/7, "Dubai preferred city by mobile rich" Well "prefer" here means ranked number 10? Work hard, they might go up the totem pole, but the media here likes to over play their hand in putting a positive spin on Dubai's achievement. The pun on "Gulf News" is the good news paper. All major papers belong to this club.

Blooming Trees

This particular specie of trees are in bloom right now. Very beautful and some are so full of flowers, you can hardly see the leaves. The next event to behold must be when the flowers are being shed. It would be a wonderful experience to stand under one of these (if it is not too hot!) like I try to do sometimes back home.

Google on Mother's Day

Today is Mother's Day, and this is Google for the UAE today.





Now this is from the Google page from Singapore.

I got the idea to compare them when I saw how beautifully created the Singapore's Google landing site was. Google in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and Australia also have this same face.

"Peachicks"

Our inumerable visits to the Mandai Zoo, we always bump into the peacocks and peahens but never their young. It was a pleasant surprise for us to discover these "peachicks" (they should just be called chicks) this morning in the office compound next to the Palm Jumeirah.

I took several shots of the mother and her chicks to share with our girls.

Desert Diplomacy from Singapore

Below is an article from Business Times of May 5, 2009 by Mr. Wong Wai Hon. I am inserting here to bring more balance to my blog posts. Whether you like this place depends very much on your circumstances. If you are young, single and free like this chap, you would like it better. Dubai is positioned to attract the yuppies and dinks. For us we have to strike a balance of how we can successfully return school going kids to the Singapore system.

Outwardly both cities appear successful and prosperous but they cannot be more different. The electricity works and the water flows without fail from the tap but the similarity might just end there. I forgot, you can find domestic help as easily here too, but not doctors. The corporate culture is completely different and to me the greatest contrast is Singapore was built on savings but Dubai on debt. It goes without saying that how you spend your savings and borrowed money is very different.


Desert diplomacy

LETTER FROM DUBAI
Wong Wai Hon International graduate for priority banking, Standard Chartered Bank

ASALAMALAKUM! In Dubai it is common to hear this as a form of greeting and it has certainly helped me to interact with the locals.

I was given the opportunity to work for Standard Chartered Bank in Dubai after my graduation from Singapore Management University in July 2008. Ten months have gone by and I love every moment of my time here. The fact that I had never been away from Singapore for more than a month during my travels, and the thought of working overseas and meeting people from around the world, only made the journey here more exciting for me.

The first thing that struck me when I arrived in Dubai was the high number of expatriates living here. In fact, you will find more expatriates than locals in almost any part of Dubai. On my very first day of work, I was introduced to my fellow international graduates from 12 different countries. I now have friends from over 30 countries and I continue to meet new people every day.

Food is a major draw here, especially for Singaporeans, and I for one explored my options and enjoyed every minute of it. Dubai offers a wide variety of cuisine ? Korean, Japanese, Chinese ? you name it and you will find it here.

My first gastronomical adventure was at a Lebanese restaurant recommended by my Lebanese colleague. I was virtually blown away by it. I ordered chicken tikkas and my colleague taught me to eat the tikkas with hummus, Lebanese bread and fresh vegetables. This particular dish has become a favourite that I enjoy at least once a week.

Driving luxury cars is no longer a dream here in Dubai and many Singaporeans living here have bought cars that they usually would not be able to back home. It is not uncommon to meet up with a group of Singaporeans who are all driving BMWs!

Weekends in Dubai are never boring as there are all kinds of activities. The Desert Safari tours are a must for the adventurous. For racing fans, the auto dome is hugely popular as well. Sports lovers can look forward to great tennis matches in January and the inaugural F1 race in Abu Dhabi in November 2009.

Working in Dubai has its fair share of challenges, and being fresh out of university, I was eager to learn and put my best foot forward. The interactions with clients and staff were fruitful and I learnt that the key to doing well is to be responsive, both towards clients and colleagues. Doing so has helped me build better relationships and trust with them.

I was fortunate to have great support from my bank, as well as fellow Singaporeans living in the UAE. That helped me to settle down in Dubai fairly quickly. It was then I realised that when you are abroad, it is essential to lend support to fellow Singaporeans who are moving over.

That is the reason why I founded the SMU Alumni Chapter in Dubai in 2008. Just as I have benefited from having a network of Singaporeans helping me, I hope to help people adapt to the local culture during my stay in Dubai. For example, students who are here on internships and graduates who have taken up postings in Dubai. To date, I have helped two student groups.

My parting advice to those who are coming to Dubai would be to keep an open mind and venture out of your comfort zone. Only by doing this was I able to adapt quickly to the local environment. It has made my experiences in UAE a memorable chapter in my life, and a great story to tell my children in the future.

Dr. Jamal Sanad Al-Suwaidi: A forthright Arab/Emirati

Just read this article and thought I shared a few things from it. I have also excerpted from it the following.

Source: http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/business/?id=31862

“The Arabs claim they understand everything but they do not read; if they do read, they do not understand; if they understand, they plan but do not implement.”

“Unfortunately, we stick to our pride, which certainly reflects on development in our countries. Our economy will not progress because we are in the midst of an economic environment built on the findings of science, research and experience and not pride.”

“We do not drink oil, we drink water, and water is our everlasting problem in the Gulf region because our terrain is but dry desert. We rely on desalinating water from the Gulf, albeit at a high cost."

He emphasizes that water supplies will only meet the needs of 67 percent of the Gulf’s population (with the exception of Oman) by 2015. He quotes UN reports and calls for “considering with caution the cost of relying on desalination of Gulf water, which would near US$25 billion by 2010”;

Dr. Al-Suwaidi compares the Arabs to Israel and noted that the Arabs has failed to invest in creating their own intellectual property. Pride is a real stumbling block to their development and economic progress. If I may add, the Arab attitude is the exact of Singapore and many societies in Asia.

Nothing stands still, for example the Arabs face a looming water crisis which they are yet to do anything about. We know nature will impose its solution if we do not prepare our friendlier alternatives sooner; but before we get to that, wars over water may be what they are staring at. Singapore has been much more far-sighted with our water needs.

The Arabs must learn that oil doesn't save them. It only give them time to find a more sustainable model to build an advanced and prosperous society. Living here, I have am increasingly drawn to the conclusion that even as they diversify their economies, they cannot diversify away from oil in the true sense. That black gold subsidizes their uncompetitive diversification. The same "gold" pays for their unsustainable water resource. As for Dubai, she understands the magical powers of debt as a servant but not its harsh brutality as a master.

Pay cuts coming

An upcoming big event for Dubai I am expecting is significant pay cuts for expats working in government affiliated companies. As usual, you hear the wind carrying it to you first. Most times you can't tell where it blew from. A couple of days in Arabian Business, the hint becomes even stronger. Let me quote a paragraph from the interview with carried by the paper with Dr Omar bin Sulaiman, the vice-chairman of the central bank.

Efficiency is one of the big things that is happening in Dubai over the last few months. Government agencies, semi-government agencies and other sectors came under pressure and started improving their efficiency. We looked at the way we do things and the cost of doing things

Cooking lunch

I decided to finish the remaining brussel sprouts for lunch. Looking at them boiling in the pan was such a beautiful sight (the photo doesn't do justice), I just have to get a snap shot of it.

My meals are very simple especially if I only need to prepare them for myself. You can easily guess what I have this sprouts with. After I have removed these cute green bulbs, I threw in a package of maggi noodles.

Vehicular Traffic

Looks like I was on the right side of the road isn't it? Just yesterday a friend here commented if I have noticed that the traffic is building up again. I replied that it seems to be so after Sheikh Mo declared that the worst is behind for Dubai. Good for them, but history has not been kind to those calling the dawn too early. As I write this, the situation on the swine flu crisis is still unclear. The world financial system is still on life support.

It is good to be optimistic, but it is wise to be prepared that we might be wrong. We will always have our hits and misses. What is important is we are still in the game.

I hope the worst is behind us, but let's make sure we can survive if it turns out to be a false dawn.

Responding to Swine Flu

Above what Singapore's MOH disease outbreak response plan. Haven't seen anything equivalent for Dubai or the UAE but the Gulf News has the following.

From an article which headlines itself as, "Health Ministry says swine flu poses no real threat to UAE", I quote from it.

A circular has been issued to doctors in the UAE asking them to be fully prepared to deal with any potential swine flu cases, Jamal Al Turki, technical director, preventive medicine, Ministry of Health (MoH), said on Sunday.

I bet the doctors would be asking among themselves, "What are you talking about?" How to fully prepare? Who is going to organize us?

And then I can't believe how Al Turki went on to contradict himself.

Al Turki said: "This particular type of flu can be transmitted by being close to pigs; so in this regard there is no real threat in the UAE. The disease is also not transmitted through the food chain."

"We are also keeping a close surveillance on people coming from the infected part of the world based on the slightest flu like symptoms. There is a potential for this flu to turn into an epidemic because this particular virus changes its genetic composition. It can infect pigs but human-to-human transmission does not take place," he added.

Well Al Turki is right that as a flu virus it cannot travel to you via the food chain. Countries banning pork products from affected countries are doing so for social and political reasons. It is not a public health issue.

Hot weather finally here

Much of April was a contest between the cool and hot weather. Until November, for now hot has won. I just came in and decided what was the temperature outside: 39 Celsius. The next few days look OK but could well surprise on the upside.

Humidity is 41%, which is quite uncomfortable.

Parking the back side?

When translating from one language to another, I will always remember this example. The computer was asked to translate from the Bible, "the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak". In Russian, the computer spewed out, "the vodka is strong, but the flesh is rotten".

I took this photo yesterday from across the Noodle Bowl restaurant. It should have read Park Behind instead of "Parking the back side". Well, at least I know how it reads, and not funny of course in any Middle Eastern or Asian language.

We have no problem getting around Dubai with just English. Such comical experience with public signages only tell me that there is another unfamiliar and perhaps larger world in Dubai that I am not aware of. A world where the folks do not use English, and if they are so well hidden from us, they are probably the poorer segment of the society here.

They say the rich and the poor the world over are the same. That is probably right. It is in the middle class that one society is different from another. There is no middle class in Dubai, a least a large one that you cannot miss. Dubai is unreal. It is filled with so many foreign expats that has arrived only recently.

Go up fast, come down faster. Come in quickly, rush out faster could well be the story of expats in Dubai. I shudder to think of such a scenario here. I hope it doesn't come true. EFG Hermes predicted that Dubai would lose up to 17% of its population this year. UBS put down their number at 10%. Do they grasp the implication of such numbers?

Good bye my Ikea bag

It was just a paper bag, what is the big deal. I have been using this bag I took from Ikea to fill with empty water bottles for recycling every week. This time I have to leave it behind because the bin as you can see above was filled to the brim. Silly to be sentimental over a paper bag isn't it? Well I still have one more bag and I don't think I would so unfortunate to have to leave it behind the next time. I could always take the bag back with me and come back another day right? So much for being sentimental.

Singapore Day not in Dubai

Above picture from ST April 26, 2009

The government threw a party costing $6 million dollars for overseas singaporeans in London. It must have been a very good party. Singaporeans even travelled from the continent to soak in the fun and the recreated Singaporean atmosphere. It was clever too. If you can get the people to laugh at the ERP gantry, how angry can they be to pay the ERP charges?

As a realist, we cannot expect the same in Dubai but eventually I believe they will do the equivalent of London in Shanghai or Beijing. Why? If you come to Dubai, most of us just want to make our money and go home. In Europe and the USA, singaporeans there might not want to come back. Therefore you double your efforts to keep up your link with them. Create some event to remember and if possible even smell like Singapore. Actually Singapore doesn't smell any more. It used to, and very badly too when I was a kid. She has come a long way.

If you ever get an offer to come to Dubai to work, make sure that they pay you very well. You are likely to get into situations that cost you plenty here. Some have regretted coming here as a result. E.g., with more than 20 years experience on the road in various countries, I had to cough up quite a few thousands equivalent of SGD, not to mention time to take driving lessons, and the most ridiculous driving test to drive on Dubai roads legally. Fortunately that has recently changed, but as always they will find something else to burn a hole in your pocket. We could have bumped into another such scenario, but that is another story.

I am editing this post because earlier I forget to add that we do organize events for Singaporeans in Dubai but it is almost always a non-government initiative and of course from our own financial resources. The government helps us economize by opening the consulate grounds for such events. It is a good start but will it stop here? May be they will do better at the Abu Dhabi side. The embassy was involved in organizing a driving trip to Al Ain recently.

The Iranians also carried this story

I think this is the third time I have seen this report carried in three different newspapers. This time, I read it in an Iranian publication. They have a large commercial presence in Dubai. My landlord is also Iranian. I imagine it could also be translated into Farsi and my landlord could have read it too.

We are unlikely to finish our lease of this apartment. A couple of days I called him to tell him that. I am not sure if he understood me, and we could not get in touch with the bilingual real estate agent as a go between. We are even wondering if she is still with the agency.

Source: http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=92499&sectionid=3510213

70 pct price falls loom for UAE real estate

Sat, 25 Apr 2009 09:00:54 GMT

The Swiss banking giant UBS has downgraded the real estate sector in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Wall Street Journal reports.

The main drivers for the downgrade are seen as the massive oversupply of properties,expected price falls of up to 70% and prospects of widespread defaults.

Property prices in Dubai have nosedived since September 2008, when the effects of the US-triggered world financial crisis and falling crude prices caught up with the property boom in Persian Gulf sheikhdoms.

The UBS research note, released on Tuesday, goes on to say: "We believe the recent run up in equities with positive global market sentiment, U.A.E. government bailout as a backdrop is unsustainable,… We don't yet see fundamentals improving, hence we view overall systematic risk as mispriced."

With many of the migrant workers and experts leaving the emirates due to rocketing unemployment, exploitation and maltreatment, the UBS report foresees a population drop of up to 10%, further reducing demand for residential properties leading to a sector vacancy rate of up to 30% by the end of 2010.

As a result, the UBS report forecasts the average house price to fall to as much as 500 UAE dirhams ($136.1) per square foot ($1465 per square meter) from a peak of AED1850 ($503.6) in the fourth quarter of 2008.

And the worst may be yet to come, the Swiss investment bank believes. Its note says: "In our view we are still in relatively early stages of the property down cycle in the U.A.E.,… We believe risk-reward profiles are not yet compelling for investors to consider market reentry hence continued price declines are expected."

According to UBS, although property prices have already fallen by an average of 25% to about AED1400 ($381.1) per square foot ($4,102.1 per square meter),the spiral is likely to continue.

"In our view we are still in relatively early stages of the property down cycle in the UAE," the research note said. "We believe risk-reward profiles are not yet compelling for investors to consider market reentry hence continued price declines are expected."

As a result, although share prices in Emaar Properties, Dubai's Union Properties and Abu Dhabi's Aldar Properties rose by 33%, 40% and 84% respectively over the past month, UBS downgraded Emaar and Union Properties to sell, from neutral rating and Aldar to neutral, from buy.

The property freefall has forced major developers to put the brakes on major projects, in order to survive the current crisis.

The Swiss bank believes that some $300 billion worth of projects, or 60-70%, of new projects have been either delayed or canceled altogether.

The note explains: “With ramping job losses and loan-to-values of various properties rising above 100%, implying negative equity, we believe mortgage default rates will pick up over the coming quarters, potentially in the mid to high single digit range.”

UBS said that Dubai has a total of $112 billion in liabilities, which include a $42 billion cost to finish all residential properties.

Last year, the sheikhdom had an exposure to mortgages equal to about $30 billion, and the Swiss bank forecasts a higher figure next year.

"With ramping job losses and loan-to-values of various properties rising above 100%, implying negative equity, we believe mortgage default rates will pick up over the coming quarters, potentially in the mid to high single digit range," it said.

This follows an earlier statement by UBS which forecast a default of up to $25 billion by investors and home buyers in the emirates for part-completed properties.

In a February 15 interview, the Dubai-based UBS real estate and construction analyst Saud Masud said: “We believe delinquencies on payment terms will be a growing concern over the next few years…. In our view investors are and will continue to default as per individual risk profile.”

AAM/RE

Sunrise

It is about 6.30am. I saw this beautiful view beyond my apartment window. Can't resist taking a few shots for keeps.

This is also a way to remember that as summer approaches, the day starts earlier too. What is most unforgettable is seeing the sun sets at 9pm in the cold New Zealand summer. It is something you remember forever.

Dubai doing just fine, says ruler

Recently, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai engaged journalists in a question and answer session online. The transcript is available from the new website of the PM (he is also PM of the UAE) here.

I decided to write something here this event after reading a Straits Times report of it.

I am sure Dubai will survive this financial crisis but at heavy personal costs to the many foreigners working here. There will be huge invisible costs too. They cannot be easily spotted: For emiratis eyes and years only. In many instances, only for the emirati elite.

Since I returned after a two week break in Singapore, the traffic has become even lighter. The five abandoned cars at the bottom of the office tower have been removed. It will take a while to see which ones (if any) would accumulate dust and thus shout that their owners have ran away.

The most important word in Dubai also begins with a big "D" - Debt. The emirate owes USD 80 billion, but that is not the most meaningful number. What is crucial are the maturities of these obligations. About USD 12 billion would have to be paid this year or be rolled over.

The other worry is the risk of further impairment to their assets which could effectively raise their debt burden. The elites here think the worst is over and this give them the confidence to speak publicly and louder. I think the worst is still ahead of us. Just look at America and the woes of Dubai's customers and investors.

Sheikh Mohammad is wrong to think that the foreign media wants to help do in Dubai on the way down. Imagine that Dubai had gone up rather than down. The media would have sung its praises to high heavens.

The media like debt is a good servant but a bad master. Dubai was courageous or some think reckless to ride on tigers. Nevertheless I think they will live to fight another day. May be at that time it would be impossible to distinguish between Dubai and Abu Dhabi. You will have to come live here to know such things, and not make the silly mistake like SIA CEO Chew Choon Seng suggesting that Emirates Airlines enjoyed subsidised jet fuel. Filling up my first full tank of petrol back in September, I already know that petrol sales here is profitable to the government. It is even more profitable for the Singapore government! Now should I discuss DEWA versus Singapore Power? What is the secret of Singapore's budgetary surpluses?

Road Trip to Al Ain

Made a road trip to Al Ain on Friday morning. Not the best day to drive as the strong winds were blowing up the sand. The weather is also beginning to turn hot here and this will be our last long distance road trip.

A quick tour of Jumeirah Beach

With a couple of hours to kill before collecting the children from school, we visited the Jumeirah Beach last week. This place is very near to the school.

Everyone is asleep

It is not even 10pm but they have all turned in for the night. I am on Facebook using the less powerful Netbook hooked up to an external display in the master bedroom. It is very quiet and peaceful now. I shouldn't stay up too late either since I am usually up well before 5am. I am told the locals here are night owls, adapting to the desert clime I suppose.

Burj Dubai from the air

Photo by Lin from SQ plane approaching Dubai International Airport almost a week ago. Very hazy weather probably due to as usual the wind blowing up the sand. In the distance faintly you can see the outline of the world's tallest building, the Burj Dubai.

Camel Racing

Guess what, camel racing on TV again. I have been telling you guys about these jockey-less races during my recent visit home. You can see the SUVs racing alongside the camels. Not so clear in this brief video, but from these vehicles, they control the camels running.

ATM Robbery

Got this video clip from a fellow Singaporean in Dubai. Can't find any newspaper story of it to support its authenticity. For what it is worth, I think it pays to be more vigilant in Dubai now. Low crime does not mean no crime.

Visiting the East Coast Park

Some photos I took of the East Coast Park on our two week break in Singapore. These were some of the familiar morning sights we used to enjoy on our bikes every weekend.

April 7, 2009 at about 8 am.

Sunrise

First work and school day after returning to Dubai. Greeted by this beautiful sunrise at 6.30am in the morning. It was first spotted by Daisy.

Budget Terminal Again

Like many Singaporeans we have visited many foreign cities by air. Trundling up and down the stairs to and from a plane was something I did as a kid or if you are flying from a budget terminal. So far all our experience with Dubai airport is recreating the budget terminal experience. We have returned to Dubai like we left for Singapore two weeks ago. I hope we get the aerobridge the next time.

Dubai always look like a jewel from far. Only from afar.

Cookies from Tansy

Tansy gave us two bags of home made cookies when she came with Isaac to send us off at the airport. These are big thumbs up cookies. Thanks very much!

Checking in SQ flight to Dubai

We checked in via the Internet late thursday afternoon. Look at the number of available (green) seats on our flight in economy class.

The journey back to Singapore was packed with filippinos transiting at Changi on their way home. This return flight to Dubai shows that for most of them it had been a one-way flight. Dubai isn't hiring, so the human traffic isn't flowing towards there any more.

I have never been on an SQ flight that is so empty. I bet it would be far worse in business class.

Burj Dubai as lightning rod

An old friend from Singapore sent me this. Another one told me she saw some of it while driving in Dubai.

Dubai Milk

I am posting this from Singapore. I have been drinking Magnolia milk as a kid. I think their Hi-Lo is better than Marigold's and Daisy's. In Dubai, even their full cream milk taste like they have added 50% water. Consequently, I have abandoned my regular breakfast of cereal with milk. It was such a pity as the cereals I like from Marks & Spencer are so much cheaper than back home.

Now back home for a couple of weeks, unless I have to meet people for breakfast, I am on cereal and milk. Cereal from M&S of course.

We really missed our libraries

Yesterday, visited the Bishan community library after lunch with the extended family at my brother's place. I was hoping to check out "Factory Girls" but it was unavailable at this branch but got "The China Price" instead. The NLB libraries are one of those things we really miss when in Dubai. Every trip we took to Dubai Mall, we never missed Kinokuniya. I hope they succeed as the traffic there is so much thinner than their Singapore Ngee Ann City outlet.

Gone up from $1.35 to $1.70

This was S$1.35 before I left for Dubai. Seven months later it has gone up to S$1.70, meanwhile I just saw a one-for-one deal at Friends@Jelita just earlier this evening. Chicken rice at Ghim Moh hawker centre is still starting at $2.50 per plate. Prices at high end outlets are falling while the lower end in some ways is trying to reach for the sky but of course like chickens they can take off only briefly or there will be social instability.

Unlike in the past, this is one recession where the rich get hit big time. We can expect this one to be long and recovery to be slow.

Terrorism Risk: Why Singapore and not Dubai

For sometime I have been trying to find out why was Singapore targeted but not Dubai. Even Saudi Arabia wasn't spared. Today I found a possible reason why; Al Qaeda needs Dubai. It is a lifeline of sorts for them. See "Al Qaeda in the UAE"

Note there is a major error of fact in the article which I felt the author shouldn't have made. He had confused the Al Nahyan family which runs Abu Dhabi with the Al Maktoum which governs Dubai. Well, for what it is worth, it is quite interesting.

15% discount at Soup Kitchen

Arrived in Singapore Changi Airport around noon yesterday. It was truly wonderful for Peter, my old pal to come meet us at the airport. We can order more food with one additional person.

Soup Kitchen won over the Food Court, but not for long. We were given 15% discount something which is still very rare in Dubai. I know hotel rates there have been falling but the prices at the restaurants and food courts, at least the ones we go to remain stuck a high prices. Why are they not adjusting. We know some of the leading and biggest companies in Dubai have already laid off half their employees.

Gotta to run, got to run downstairs to buy the family local breakfast, e.g., "black sauce carrot cake with chili"

Budget Airport

We left Dubai for Singapore late last night. I took this picture as I disembark the bus, before I ran up the stairs to the SQ Airbus. You wouldn't get a chance if you were in Changi because you would be well cocooned inside an aero-bridge. Dubai International Airport has been like a budget terminal to us. We arrived with Emirates months ago, we had to take a shuttle bus to the terminal. Leaving for Singapore, we have the double fortune of doing the same. I thought air traffic has fallen considerably, why can't we have the convenience of an aero-bridge? As the bus trundled its wahy to our parked plane, I could see many unused aero-bridges. I am not surprised. This is the way Dubai does things so often. The people who make the big decisions there ride in private planes. If they know what the rest of us live with (not that bad actually, you musn't compare with Changi) riding commercial planes, perhaps the airport would be better. What the decision makers don't see they can't manage.

3,000 abandoned cars?

I have lost count the number of times the newspapers here and overseas reported that there are about 3,000 abandoned cars in Dubai.

Yesterday Daisy was delayed, so I got out of the car and snap the above photos of the cars parked downstairs of the office tower. All the five cars were very dusty and obviously not been used for sometime. There are some more cars like these at my housing estate. Perhaps someone could tow one of them to this place to make six and the photo above more complete.

So are there 3,000 abandoned cars around Dubai? You bet there could well be more now.

Mom would have been 69 today

Had she lived, she would have been 69 today, but she went home to the Lord on Valentine's Day six years ago. A few months later from the slideshow I created for her since she cannot be out there enjoying flowers and nature, the Inspirational Flash Movies websites came into being: InspiringThots and InspiringWord.

This is pure speculation, but I wonder if John thought often of his brother James who was beheaded in the early days the young church - "This one is for him!". InspiringThots and InspiringWord are for my mom because Amazing Grace was given to her at the end of her time here. They are the proof of that Grace.

From 10 Dhs to 12 Dhs

Marble Slab will be part of my girls' memory of this place as Swensens' ice-cream had back home in Singapore. Their ice-cream is good and they have some of the best prices too. They are so competitive, they could rise the price of a regular cup from 10 dhs (S$ 4) to 12 dhs. I discovered this yesterday.

Here is my earlier blog entry of our experience with them.

I met George Mueller today

Today I had lunch with a new friend and had the wonderful opportunity to hear his Dubai story. I told him that his story is like a script borrowed from parts of the life of George Mueller, the guy who by faith ran several orphanages in Bristol in the 1800s.

I look forward to meeting more George Mueller types in person. There are quite a few of them, but I didn't expect to find them here in Dubai. The amazing invisble that we are occasionally privileged to glimpse at only. Some day such hidden beauty would be completely revealed. You want to have a part in these scripts.

A flash movie for Asian Expats

I received a beautiful poem from my States side friend and decided to turn it into a flash movie for the asian expats working here. If you want the version with music, use this link: http://inspiringthots.net/movie/note-miles.php

No need to worry about the jet set upper class of expats here, but I often imagine what it must be like for the others who cannot make home visits as much as they would like to. Their mobile phones and for some the internet connected PC must be terribly important to them to stay in touch with their families and friends back home.

Don't tell me, I know there is an even larger group of construction workers who have had to rely on the old fashioned pen and paper. I can only wish that we keep improving until they also get elevated to a higher standard of living. I hope that they are less forgotten. What I try to do for them is to stop the car for them whenever they try to make it across the street. I bear in mind that I almost never need to cross the street here. Wheels take me every where, for them it is their legs.

International Day (Singapore and Malaysia)

Yesterday the girls' school celebrated International Day. It was an important annual event on the school calendar and truly reflect the multi-national nature of the place. There were so many booths representing so many countries. Many of their national costumes were just awesomely beautiful, and it really hit you that we have no national costumes like many other countries.

The Singapore booth was most unique. It was a joint effort between the Malaysians and us. Indeed outside Singapore and Malaysia, we see each other as one. Unlike the reception for President Nathan the night before, I was told the food here is more generous and much better quality too. Lin and I enjoyed many sticks of satay. It was truly yummy. Thanks!

Look at the state flags hanging side by side above. Should I forgive the MFA for refusing a Singaporean friend from bringing her Malaysian fiancee to the reception? They solved the problem when the guy decided not to attend. So often politics divides, but culture unites, yeah?

Mother's Day

Now I know one place to find the important and commercially valuable dates is Carrefour here at MOE. How quickly Norooz has been succeeded by Mother's Day (yesterday I think). Like Teacher's Day, Mother's Day apparently is celebrated on different days across the world.

The young lady in the photo, I was waiting for her to go away before I snap this picture. I gave up waiting for her. She is truly an unintented inclusion.

Happy Norooz

Happy Nooroz to Taleb and Ansari. Taleb is our landlord and Ansari is the lady from Hamptons that was very helpful with arranging for us to be in our present apartment.

The above shot was taken surreptiously at Carrefour MOE. I stood there for a very long time admiring the beautiful narcissus and other roses. There was an exceptionally beautiful bunch of yellow roses which I didn't manage to get a shot of.

The humidity keeps getting lower

Looks like the humidity keeps getting lower. I set the humidifier at 50% for the children. Usually it will pause sometime during the night but this morning despite working through the night the display reports: 46%. The one in my room is worse: 42%

Day trip to Abu Dhabi

We took a half day trip to Abu Dhabi last saturday. Left Dubai at about 10am and came back around 3pm. Overall, we find the capital a prettier place than Dubai, which is still like one giant construction yard.

Our second visit to the Doc

Back at the expensive and relatively empty American Hospital once again. This time it is Zhen that needed to see the doc. No choice, but to come here as the symptoms refuse to subside after several days. Diagnosis: Bronchitis.

We had a light snack at the cafe after seeing the doc (picture of the cafe above). Only two tables were occupied. Prices were similar or lower than Costa - read OK prices. The choc croissants were quite nice. Zhen opted for hot chocolate.

Klacid for seven days, 500mg/pill to be taken after meals once daily. Thankful it wasn't the foul tasting liquid version.

It Rocks!

This happened late afternoon yessterday.

Yes, it rocks! but not like youngsters these days use the word. This big fellow perched on the big truck was unstable and rocking. I was driving right behind it and trying to keep a safe distance. The steel cables, no it was steel chains holding it down didn't inspire confidence at all. As you know, the chain is only as strong as its weakest link. I thought they would have used cables instead. I was thinking of the awe inspiring cables of the Golden Gate, at least a more modest cousin.

Well I lived to tell this story. No newspaper story today that it fell off. Might not be so lucky next time.