Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Cooking lunch



I decided to finish the remaining brussel sprouts for lunch. Looking at them boiling in the pan was such a beautiful sight (the photo doesn't do justice), I just have to get a snap shot of it.

My meals are very simple especially if I only need to prepare them for myself. You can easily guess what I have this sprouts with. After I have removed these cute green bulbs, I threw in a package of maggi noodles.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Vehicular Traffic



Looks like I was on the right side of the road isn't it? Just yesterday a friend here commented if I have noticed that the traffic is building up again. I replied that it seems to be so after Sheikh Mo declared that the worst is behind for Dubai. Good for them, but history has not been kind to those calling the dawn too early. As I write this, the situation on the swine flu crisis is still unclear. The world financial system is still on life support.

It is good to be optimistic, but it is wise to be prepared that we might be wrong. We will always have our hits and misses. What is important is we are still in the game.

I hope the worst is behind us, but let's make sure we can survive if it turns out to be a false dawn.

Responding to Swine Flu



Above what Singapore's MOH disease outbreak response plan. Haven't seen anything equivalent for Dubai or the UAE but the Gulf News has the following.

From an article which headlines itself as, "Health Ministry says swine flu poses no real threat to UAE", I quote from it.

A circular has been issued to doctors in the UAE asking them to be fully prepared to deal with any potential swine flu cases, Jamal Al Turki, technical director, preventive medicine, Ministry of Health (MoH), said on Sunday.

I bet the doctors would be asking among themselves, "What are you talking about?" How to fully prepare? Who is going to organize us?

And then I can't believe how Al Turki went on to contradict himself.

Al Turki said: "This particular type of flu can be transmitted by being close to pigs; so in this regard there is no real threat in the UAE. The disease is also not transmitted through the food chain."

"We are also keeping a close surveillance on people coming from the infected part of the world based on the slightest flu like symptoms. There is a potential for this flu to turn into an epidemic because this particular virus changes its genetic composition. It can infect pigs but human-to-human transmission does not take place," he added.

Well Al Turki is right that as a flu virus it cannot travel to you via the food chain. Countries banning pork products from affected countries are doing so for social and political reasons. It is not a public health issue.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Hot weather finally here



Much of April was a contest between the cool and hot weather. Until November, for now hot has won. I just came in and decided what was the temperature outside: 39 Celsius. The next few days look OK but could well surprise on the upside.

Humidity is 41%, which is quite uncomfortable.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Parking the back side?



When translating from one language to another, I will always remember this example. The computer was asked to translate from the Bible, "the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak". In Russian, the computer spewed out, "the vodka is strong, but the flesh is rotten".

I took this photo yesterday from across the Noodle Bowl restaurant. It should have read Park Behind instead of "Parking the back side". Well, at least I know how it reads, and not funny of course in any Middle Eastern or Asian language.

We have no problem getting around Dubai with just English. Such comical experience with public signages only tell me that there is another unfamiliar and perhaps larger world in Dubai that I am not aware of. A world where the folks do not use English, and if they are so well hidden from us, they are probably the poorer segment of the society here.

They say the rich and the poor the world over are the same. That is probably right. It is in the middle class that one society is different from another. There is no middle class in Dubai, a least a large one that you cannot miss. Dubai is unreal. It is filled with so many foreign expats that has arrived only recently.

Go up fast, come down faster. Come in quickly, rush out faster could well be the story of expats in Dubai. I shudder to think of such a scenario here. I hope it doesn't come true. EFG Hermes predicted that Dubai would lose up to 17% of its population this year. UBS put down their number at 10%. Do they grasp the implication of such numbers?

Good bye my Ikea bag



It was just a paper bag, what is the big deal. I have been using this bag I took from Ikea to fill with empty water bottles for recycling every week. This time I have to leave it behind because the bin as you can see above was filled to the brim. Silly to be sentimental over a paper bag isn't it? Well I still have one more bag and I don't think I would so unfortunate to have to leave it behind the next time. I could always take the bag back with me and come back another day right? So much for being sentimental.

Singapore Day not in Dubai


Above picture from ST April 26, 2009

The government threw a party costing $6 million dollars for overseas singaporeans in London. It must have been a very good party. Singaporeans even travelled from the continent to soak in the fun and the recreated Singaporean atmosphere. It was clever too. If you can get the people to laugh at the ERP gantry, how angry can they be to pay the ERP charges?

As a realist, we cannot expect the same in Dubai but eventually I believe they will do the equivalent of London in Shanghai or Beijing. Why? If you come to Dubai, most of us just want to make our money and go home. In Europe and the USA, singaporeans there might not want to come back. Therefore you double your efforts to keep up your link with them. Create some event to remember and if possible even smell like Singapore. Actually Singapore doesn't smell any more. It used to, and very badly too when I was a kid. She has come a long way.

If you ever get an offer to come to Dubai to work, make sure that they pay you very well. You are likely to get into situations that cost you plenty here. Some have regretted coming here as a result. E.g., with more than 20 years experience on the road in various countries, I had to cough up quite a few thousands equivalent of SGD, not to mention time to take driving lessons, and the most ridiculous driving test to drive on Dubai roads legally. Fortunately that has recently changed, but as always they will find something else to burn a hole in your pocket. We could have bumped into another such scenario, but that is another story.

I am editing this post because earlier I forget to add that we do organize events for Singaporeans in Dubai but it is almost always a non-government initiative and of course from our own financial resources. The government helps us economize by opening the consulate grounds for such events. It is a good start but will it stop here? May be they will do better at the Abu Dhabi side. The embassy was involved in organizing a driving trip to Al Ain recently.

The Iranians also carried this story

I think this is the third time I have seen this report carried in three different newspapers. This time, I read it in an Iranian publication. They have a large commercial presence in Dubai. My landlord is also Iranian. I imagine it could also be translated into Farsi and my landlord could have read it too.

We are unlikely to finish our lease of this apartment. A couple of days I called him to tell him that. I am not sure if he understood me, and we could not get in touch with the bilingual real estate agent as a go between. We are even wondering if she is still with the agency.

Source: http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=92499&sectionid=3510213

70 pct price falls loom for UAE real estate

Sat, 25 Apr 2009 09:00:54 GMT

The Swiss banking giant UBS has downgraded the real estate sector in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Wall Street Journal reports.

The main drivers for the downgrade are seen as the massive oversupply of properties,expected price falls of up to 70% and prospects of widespread defaults.



Property prices in Dubai have nosedived since September 2008, when the effects of the US-triggered world financial crisis and falling crude prices caught up with the property boom in Persian Gulf sheikhdoms.



The UBS research note, released on Tuesday, goes on to say: "We believe the recent run up in equities with positive global market sentiment, U.A.E. government bailout as a backdrop is unsustainable,… We don't yet see fundamentals improving, hence we view overall systematic risk as mispriced."



With many of the migrant workers and experts leaving the emirates due to rocketing unemployment, exploitation and maltreatment, the UBS report foresees a population drop of up to 10%, further reducing demand for residential properties leading to a sector vacancy rate of up to 30% by the end of 2010.



As a result, the UBS report forecasts the average house price to fall to as much as 500 UAE dirhams ($136.1) per square foot ($1465 per square meter) from a peak of AED1850 ($503.6) in the fourth quarter of 2008.



And the worst may be yet to come, the Swiss investment bank believes. Its note says: "In our view we are still in relatively early stages of the property down cycle in the U.A.E.,… We believe risk-reward profiles are not yet compelling for investors to consider market reentry hence continued price declines are expected."



According to UBS, although property prices have already fallen by an average of 25% to about AED1400 ($381.1) per square foot ($4,102.1 per square meter),the spiral is likely to continue.



"In our view we are still in relatively early stages of the property down cycle in the UAE," the research note said. "We believe risk-reward profiles are not yet compelling for investors to consider market reentry hence continued price declines are expected."



As a result, although share prices in Emaar Properties, Dubai's Union Properties and Abu Dhabi's Aldar Properties rose by 33%, 40% and 84% respectively over the past month, UBS downgraded Emaar and Union Properties to sell, from neutral rating and Aldar to neutral, from buy.



The property freefall has forced major developers to put the brakes on major projects, in order to survive the current crisis.



The Swiss bank believes that some $300 billion worth of projects, or 60-70%, of new projects have been either delayed or canceled altogether.



The note explains: “With ramping job losses and loan-to-values of various properties rising above 100%, implying negative equity, we believe mortgage default rates will pick up over the coming quarters, potentially in the mid to high single digit range.”



UBS said that Dubai has a total of $112 billion in liabilities, which include a $42 billion cost to finish all residential properties.



Last year, the sheikhdom had an exposure to mortgages equal to about $30 billion, and the Swiss bank forecasts a higher figure next year.



"With ramping job losses and loan-to-values of various properties rising above 100%, implying negative equity, we believe mortgage default rates will pick up over the coming quarters, potentially in the mid to high single digit range," it said.



This follows an earlier statement by UBS which forecast a default of up to $25 billion by investors and home buyers in the emirates for part-completed properties.



In a February 15 interview, the Dubai-based UBS real estate and construction analyst Saud Masud said: “We believe delinquencies on payment terms will be a growing concern over the next few years…. In our view investors are and will continue to default as per individual risk profile.”



AAM/RE

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Sunrise



It is about 6.30am. I saw this beautiful view beyond my apartment window. Can't resist taking a few shots for keeps.

This is also a way to remember that as summer approaches, the day starts earlier too. What is most unforgettable is seeing the sun sets at 9pm in the cold New Zealand summer. It is something you remember forever.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Dubai doing just fine, says ruler



Recently, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai engaged journalists in a question and answer session online. The transcript is available from the new website of the PM (he is also PM of the UAE) here.

I decided to write something here this event after reading a Straits Times report of it.

I am sure Dubai will survive this financial crisis but at heavy personal costs to the many foreigners working here. There will be huge invisible costs too. They cannot be easily spotted: For emiratis eyes and years only. In many instances, only for the emirati elite.

Since I returned after a two week break in Singapore, the traffic has become even lighter. The five abandoned cars at the bottom of the office tower have been removed. It will take a while to see which ones (if any) would accumulate dust and thus shout that their owners have ran away.

The most important word in Dubai also begins with a big "D" - Debt. The emirate owes USD 80 billion, but that is not the most meaningful number. What is crucial are the maturities of these obligations. About USD 12 billion would have to be paid this year or be rolled over.

The other worry is the risk of further impairment to their assets which could effectively raise their debt burden. The elites here think the worst is over and this give them the confidence to speak publicly and louder. I think the worst is still ahead of us. Just look at America and the woes of Dubai's customers and investors.

Sheikh Mohammad is wrong to think that the foreign media wants to help do in Dubai on the way down. Imagine that Dubai had gone up rather than down. The media would have sung its praises to high heavens.

The media like debt is a good servant but a bad master. Dubai was courageous or some think reckless to ride on tigers. Nevertheless I think they will live to fight another day. May be at that time it would be impossible to distinguish between Dubai and Abu Dhabi. You will have to come live here to know such things, and not make the silly mistake like SIA CEO Chew Choon Seng suggesting that Emirates Airlines enjoyed subsidised jet fuel. Filling up my first full tank of petrol back in September, I already know that petrol sales here is profitable to the government. It is even more profitable for the Singapore government! Now should I discuss DEWA versus Singapore Power? What is the secret of Singapore's budgetary surpluses?

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Road Trip to Al Ain



Made a road trip to Al Ain on Friday morning. Not the best day to drive as the strong winds were blowing up the sand. The weather is also beginning to turn hot here and this will be our last long distance road trip.

A quick tour of Jumeirah Beach



With a couple of hours to kill before collecting the children from school, we visited the Jumeirah Beach last week. This place is very near to the school.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Everyone is asleep


It is not even 10pm but they have all turned in for the night. I am on Facebook using the less powerful Netbook hooked up to an external display in the master bedroom. It is very quiet and peaceful now. I shouldn't stay up too late either since I am usually up well before 5am. I am told the locals here are night owls, adapting to the desert clime I suppose.

Burj Dubai from the air


Photo by Lin from SQ plane approaching Dubai International Airport almost a week ago. Very hazy weather probably due to as usual the wind blowing up the sand. In the distance faintly you can see the outline of the world's tallest building, the Burj Dubai.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Camel Racing

Guess what, camel racing on TV again. I have been telling you guys about these jockey-less races during my recent visit home. You can see the SUVs racing alongside the camels. Not so clear in this brief video, but from these vehicles, they control the camels running.


ATM Robbery

Got this video clip from a fellow Singaporean in Dubai. Can't find any newspaper story of it to support its authenticity. For what it is worth, I think it pays to be more vigilant in Dubai now. Low crime does not mean no crime.


Monday, April 13, 2009

Visiting the East Coast Park

Some photos I took of the East Coast Park on our two week break in Singapore. These were some of the familiar morning sights we used to enjoy on our bikes every weekend.

April 7, 2009 at about 8 am.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Sunrise



First work and school day after returning to Dubai. Greeted by this beautiful sunrise at 6.30am in the morning. It was first spotted by Daisy.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Budget Terminal Again



Like many Singaporeans we have visited many foreign cities by air. Trundling up and down the stairs to and from a plane was something I did as a kid or if you are flying from a budget terminal. So far all our experience with Dubai airport is recreating the budget terminal experience. We have returned to Dubai like we left for Singapore two weeks ago. I hope we get the aerobridge the next time.

Dubai always look like a jewel from far. Only from afar.

Cookies from Tansy



Tansy gave us two bags of home made cookies when she came with Isaac to send us off at the airport. These are big thumbs up cookies. Thanks very much!

Friday, April 10, 2009

Checking in SQ flight to Dubai


We checked in via the Internet late thursday afternoon. Look at the number of available (green) seats on our flight in economy class.
The journey back to Singapore was packed with filippinos transiting at Changi on their way home. This return flight to Dubai shows that for most of them it had been a one-way flight. Dubai isn't hiring, so the human traffic isn't flowing towards there any more.
I have never been on an SQ flight that is so empty. I bet it would be far worse in business class.







Friday, April 3, 2009

Burj Dubai as lightning rod

An old friend from Singapore sent me this. Another one told me she saw some of it while driving in Dubai.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Dubai Milk



I am posting this from Singapore. I have been drinking Magnolia milk as a kid. I think their Hi-Lo is better than Marigold's and Daisy's. In Dubai, even their full cream milk taste like they have added 50% water. Consequently, I have abandoned my regular breakfast of cereal with milk. It was such a pity as the cereals I like from Marks & Spencer are so much cheaper than back home.

Now back home for a couple of weeks, unless I have to meet people for breakfast, I am on cereal and milk. Cereal from M&S of course.